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This is deterrence as it’s supposed to work. The entire logic of deterrence rests on making the cost of action so catastrophically clear that rational actors choose inaction. Trump has done in one sentence what thirty years of State Department communiqués failed to accomplish: he has made the consequences of killing an American president specific, credible, and personal.
“Bomb them at levels they’ve never seen before.” Iran has already seen quite a bit. Their nuclear sites are rubble. Their air defenses are gone. Their military leadership has been substantially reduced. Whatever comes next, in Trump’s own telling, would make all of that look like a warm-up. Whether that means conventional munitions delivered at unprecedented scale, or something else entirely, is a question Iran’s remaining leadership should think very carefully about.
The succession question is worth acknowledging plainly: if the unthinkable happened, the decision on what “levels they’ve never seen” actually means would fall to Vice President JD Vance. Pre-written instructions carry moral and political weight, but the Commander-in-Chief in that scenario makes the final call. Vance has been consistent on Iran throughout this conflict. Nobody should assume he would be more restrained than Trump.
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