Midterm Election Stunner – VERY Bad News…b See more

Don’t pop champagne. But don’t ignore this either.

The RealClearPolitics generic congressional ballot average has shifted from Democrats plus 8 to Democrats plus 5 over the past six weeks. A new RMG poll puts it at Democrats 47, Republicans 45 — a four-point swing toward Republicans since May alone. Sean Trende, one of the most respected election analysts in the country, posted the obvious implication: we are now in territory where it is “conceivable that Republicans hold the House.”

Six weeks ago, that sentence would have been heresy in most political forecasting circles. Today it’s RealClearPolitics’ own analyst saying it publicly.

The movement has a straightforward explanation that Trende himself offered: soft Republicans are coming home. Voters who drifted away from the party during the roughest patches of the year are returning as the legislative wins pile up, the inflation numbers improve, and the contrast with a Democratic opposition that has no message beyond “we hate Trump” becomes increasingly stark.